My Biggest Pet Peeves As a Meteorologist

  • Meteorologists/weather nerds who post pictures of model total snowfall, especially without explanation. It’s one model run out of many, not a forecast. Most people don’t understand this, see the picture, and take it as gospel. You’re not a meteorologist, you’re a “modelogist.”
  • News outlets that show Euro/GFS model runs 5+ days out from event. The weather is forever changing, a lot can happen in a week.
  • Weather enthusiasts that say “if this summer event happened in winter, it would drop 100 inches of snow.” More moisture available in summer than winter, not to mention borderline snow/rain events aren’t usually 10:1 snow/rain ratios
  • The usual stereotypes we get as a meteorologist and how we are sometimes taken lightly in events we should be taken quite seriously. Sensationalism and communication can hurt this. Atlanta’s ice/snow event is a decent example.

Rollercoaster Weekend Through Next Week: Warmer Weekend. Cold Returns Next Week

Forecast:

Western PA: Much more bearable conditions through the weekend. Mostly sunny skies today will give way to a slight chance of snow overnight. The chance of snow and rain will persist into the weekend with the best chance of rain on Saturday into early Sunday as southerly winds kick in. Could see some accumulating snow by the end of the weekend in parts of western PA. Highs in the mid 20s to low 30s today, 30s tomorrow, and 40s on Saturday. Lows in the upper teens and 20s tonight will hold steady in the 20s/low 30s the rest of the week.

DC Region: Mostly sunny skies today, clouds increase tomorrow and into Saturday. A slight chance of light showers/drizzle by the latter half of the weekend. Highs in the 30s today will rise into the 40s tomorrow and Saturday. Lows in the 20s tonight will rise into the 30s the next couple nights.

Next Week: Pattern becomes more active, allowing for better potential for wet weather. Rumor has it that a “major” storm will bring a lot of snow to the Northeast during the middle of next week. It is still 5+ days out ladies and gentleman. A lot can happen between now and then. My forecast: A storm occurs early to mid next week for the East. Someone gets a good amount of snow. The track, what kind of precipitation, and how much it drops is uncertain at this time. I will keep you updated on it!

Weekend Heat Wave…Or It’ll Feel That Way

Lowest Wind Chills the Past 3 Days (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday [as of 7am] Respectively):

  • Erie (KERI): -15, -23, -21
  • Bradford (KBFD): -17, -23, -24
  • Franklin (KFKL): -20, -28, -24
  • Butler (KBTP): -18, -21,-19
  • Pittsburgh (KPIT): -16, -20, -14
  • State College (KUNV): -9, -15 , -14
  • Philly (KPHL): 7, -5, -1
  • DC (KDCA): 10, -3, 1

Forecast:

Western PA: Temperatures on the rise into the weekend. Mostly sunny skies today before clouds increase tomorrow and a chance of snow moves in late Thursday into Friday. Rain could mix in with snow this weekend, making for some sloppy conditions. Highs in the teens today will rise into the 20s/low 30s tomorrow before 30s move in on Friday. Lows in the single digits tonight will rise into the teens/20s the next couple nights. Wind chills below zero possible into tonight.

DC Region: Heating Up (In NBA Jam announcers voice)! Decreasing clouds today, mostly sunny tomorrow, partly sunny on Friday. Highs in the 20s today will rise into the 30s tomorrow before 40s move in on Friday. Lows in the teens tonight, 20s tomorrow night, and 30s Friday night.

GOOD NEWS: Warm relief this weekend.

BAD NEWS: Winter is still around. Cold returns next week. Doesn’t look to be as strong in East. Core of cold seems to sit over the Plains and western Midwest.

Cold. The kind of cold that makes you lay in bed and ask, “Why?” Warmth on the way this weekend, though.

High temperatures overnight (12am- 7am) yesterday morning:

  • Erie: 36
  • Franklin: 37
  • Butler:39
  • Pittsburgh (KPIT): 43
  • State College: 32
  • DC: 42

My forecast from Monday for temperature at 7am this morning (Difference between overnight high yesterday and 7am temperature in parentheses) :

  • Erie: 0 (Difference: -36)
  • Franklin: -10 (Difference: -47)
  • Butler: -9 (Difference: -48)
  • Pittsburgh (KPIT): -9 (Difference: -52)
  • State College: -3 (Difference: -35)
  • DC: 9 (Difference: -33)

Actual 7am temperatures and departure from overnight high (12am-7am) yesterday:

  • Erie:  -4 (Difference: -40)
  • Franklin: -11 (Difference:-48)
  • Butler: -9  (Difference:-47 )
  • Pittsburgh (KPIT): -7 (Difference:-50 )
  • State College: 0 (Difference: -32)
  • DC: 15 (Difference: -27)

Forecast:

Western PA: Cold today, cold tomorrow, cold loosens grip on Thursday. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies over the next 3 days. Wind chills in the -20s possible through Wednesday.  Highs in the single digits today will warm up slightly into the single digits/teens tomorrow. 20s and low 30s return on Thursday. Lows below zero overnight will bump up into the single digits tomorrow night before teens/low 20s move in on Thursday night.

DC Region: Models tracked westward with winter storm in the Southeast, bringing a potential for light snow accumulations in the southern DC suburbs and in the Eastern Shore. Mostly sunny skies follow in behind tomorrow and Thursday. Highs in the 20s the next couple of days will bump up into the 30s on Thursday. Lows in the teens the next couple of nights will rise into the 20s by Thursday night.

GOOD NEWS: Warm up this weekend and into early to mid next week.

BAD NEWS: It’s still winter and a colder than normal pattern should return eventually.

Think Warm Warm Warm Because It’s Going to Get Cold Cold Cold

High temperatures overnight (12am- 7am) this morning:

  • Erie: 36
  • Franklin: 37
  • Butler:39
  • Pittsburgh (KPIT): 43
  • State College: 32
  • DC: 42

Temperatures at 7am tomorrow morning:

  • Erie: 0 (Difference: -36)
  • Franklin: -10 (Difference: -47)
  • Butler: -9 (Difference: -48)
  • Pittsburgh (KPIT): -9 (Difference: -52)
  • State College: -3 (Difference: -35)
  • DC: 9 (Difference: -33)

Forecast:

Western PA: Early snow will taper off this afternoon. Dry but cold conditions will move in through the middle of the week. Temperatures will decline throughout the day as afternoon highs in the teens drop to below zero tonight. Highs in the single digits tomorrow will drop to below zero again on Tuesday into Wednesday. Teens are expected on Wednesday as highs while overnight lows into Thursday drop into the single digits.  Wind chills in the -30s possible the tonight through Wednesday.

DC Region: Dry conditions will persist into the middle of the week but conditions get cold. Afternoon highs in the 30s will fall into the upper single digits by early tomorrow morning. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday rise into the 20s while lows hang in the teens. Wind chills below zero are expected next night or two.

GOOD NEWS: Temperatures warm up into the weekend and early next week.

BAD NEWS: Could see the cold pattern return by mid to late next week.

Windy and Wintry for Western PA; DC Not As Much

Another cold one this morning in the East as temperatures are the following:

  • Erie: 2; Wind Chill: -13
  • Franklin: 0; Wind Chill: -17
  • Butler: 1; Wind Chill: -13
  • Pittsburgh: 2; Wind Chill: -13
  • State College: 5; Wind Chill: -10
  • DC: 12; Wind Chill: -1

Forecast:

Western PA:

Snow Totals: Saturday’s system: 2-5″ (Higher amounts near Erie possible); Sunday into Monday’s system: 1-3″

  • Today: Chance of snow, mainly late. Windy. Highs in the low to mid teens as these temperatures hold steady into the night. Wind chills dropping to well below zero again.
  • Tomorrow: Snow. Blowing snow. Windy. Highs in the upper teens to low 20s. Lows overnight in the low single digits if not negatives. Wind chills below zero continue.
  • Sunday: Another clipper system moves in later in the day bringing snow. Highs in the upper teens to low 20s. Overnight lows into Monday in the single digits and teens.

DC Region:

  • Today: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 20s before lows dip into the teens overnight.
  • Tomorrow: Breezy with a chance of snow. Light accumulations possible. Highs in the low to mid 30s before lows drop into the teens again.
  • Sunday: Mostly sunny. Temperatures will decrease throughout the day. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 20s with overnight lows holding steady in the 20s.

 

Cold Today. Cold Tomorrow. Balmy Weekend in the 20s/30s. Back To Really Cold Early To Mid Next Week.

Well it’s another cold one this morning as current temperatures are the following:

  • Franklin: 5; Wind Chill: -5
  • Pittsburgh: 8; Wind Chill: -5
  • State College: 7; Wind Chill: -2
  • Philly: 10; Wind Chill: -2
  • DC: 13; Wind Chill: 4

Forecast:
Western PA: Scattered light snow showers throughout the day today as an inch or so could accumulate in NW PA. Conditions will dry out tomorrow before a more substantial Alberta Clipper system tracks into the region Saturday. Accumulations of 1-3″ are possible, mainly in NW PA. Highs in the single digits and low teens today and Friday will bump up to what will feel like a heat wave with highs in the upper teens/20s on Saturday. Lows in the single digits and teens are possible the next few nights. Wind chills below zero are expected the next couple days.

DC Area: Partly sunny today, mostly sunny tomorrow, A chance of snow on Saturday. Highs in the 20s the next couple of days bump up into the 30s for the weekend. Lows in the teens will continue.

Verifications (The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of My Forecast) from Winter Storm Jabba the Hutt:

  • Good: Not too bad from north of DC to NYC (Some areas got more than a foot from near Philly into NJ and near NYC which I was afraid of a bit later in the day. Overall not bad)
  • Bad: Downtown DC didn’t get much but not too far outside the city  significantly more
  • Ugly: Pittsburgh, State College, Richmond didn’t get much at all when I had 2-4″ for Pittsburgh and State College and 2-5″ for Richmond

SNOW TOTALS:

  • My Forecast in underlined bold; Actuals in normal font
  • (Values courtesy of the National Weather Service)

DC Region: 6-10″

  • Reagan National Airport: 3.8″ at 12:00AM 1/22
  • National Arboretum: 3.9″ at 8:00AM 1/22
  • 1 mi NNE National Zoo: 7.0″ at 11:56PM 1/21
  • 1 mi E of Washington: 6.0″ at 10:30PM 1/21
  • 1 mi NW of Gaithersburg: 7.8″ at 11:30PM 1/21
  • 1 mi S of Arlington: 5.8″ at 1:30AM 1/22

Frederick: 6-10″

Frederick County:

  •    1 mi E Walkersville: 9.8 at 7:00AM 1/22
  •    4 mi SSW Frederick: 8.6″ at 7:00AM 1/22
  •    3 mi NNW New Market: 7.0″ at 4:45AM 1/22
  •    1 mi SSE Thurmont: 7.0″ at 7:00AM 1/22
  •    2 mi SE Emmitsburg: 6.0″ at 6:45AM 1/22

Baltimore: 6-10″

  • 2 mi ESE of Arlington: 7.5″ at 10:30PM 1/21
  • 1 mi N of Fells Point: 8.0 ” at 11:35PM 1/21

Philly Region: 6-12″

  • Philadelphia Office of Emergency Mgmt: 14″ at 12:00AM 1/22
  • Philadelphia Airport: 13.5″ at 12:00AM 1/22
  • King of Prussia: 10.1″ at 12:20AM 1/22

 

Reading: 6-12″

  •    Huffs Church: 6.0″ at 7:45 PM 1/21
  •    Kutztown: 5.0″ at 7:15 PM 1/21

NYC: 6-12″ with higher potential out towards Long Island.

  • La Guardia Airport: 8.1″ at 12:00AM 1/22
  • JFK Airport: 7.1″ at 7:00AM 1/22
  • Central Park: 11.5″ at 7:00AM 1/22
  • Upper West Side: 11.5″ at 950PM 1/21
  • Islip: 11.2″ at 6:30AM 1/22
  • Riverhead: 9.6″ at 4:30 AM 1/22

Pittsburgh: 2-4″

  • Pittsburgh: 0.5″ at 7:59AM 1/21
  • Moon Township: 0.8″ 4:56PM 1/21
  • Penn Hills 3.0″ at 9:30AM 1/21

Uniontown: 3-6″

  • Uniontown: 4.5″ at 3:48PM 1/21

State College: 2-4″

  • State College: 1.5″ at 8:00AM 1/22

Richmond: 2-5″

  • Downtown Richmond: 1.5″ at 9:30PM

Reedville, VA: 2-5″

  • Reedville: 3.5″ at 10:00PM 1/21

Milford, CT: 6-12″

  • Milford: 8.0″ at 11:00PM 1/21

Oil City, PA: Dusting to an 1″

  • No Accumulating snow

For Additional Snow Totals at Different Locations:

Snow Totals For Winter Storm Jabba The Hutt (Jan 21-22, 2014)

Frost Advisories: “Let’s cut the crap. Here’s your final snow forecast”
When will it move in: Eastern PA and DC (7am-9am)
When will it leave: Overnight tonight
Worst of Event: Afternoon into Evening
Biggest Threat: Heavy snows, blowing snow, low visibilities, slick roads. Driving could be very dangerous. DO NOT drive if you do not need to.

Snow Totals through Wednesday morning:
DC Region: 6-10″
Frederick: 6-10″
Baltimore: 6-10″
Philly Region: 6-12″
Reading: 6-12″
NYC: 6-12″ with higher potential out towards Long Island.
Pittsburgh: 2-4″
Uniontown: 3-6″
State College: 2-4″
Richmond: 2-5″
Reedville, VA: 2-5″
Milford, CT: 6-12″
Oil City, PA: Dusting to an 1″

Be safe and stay warm!