Winter Storm “Cut. It. Out.” Forecast Snow Totals vs. Actual Snow Reports. Forecast Verification.

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Overall: Right general pattern placement. Too low with amounts. Busted low with amounts.

Some of Highest Amounts in the Region: 11″ Mount Pleasant, PA; 14″ Davis, WV; 12.5″ Lineboro, MD; 7.0″ National Arboretum, DC; 3 Miles East of Winchester, VA 11.0″

Problem: Lots of moisture filtered in from tropical Pacific Ocean. This along with cold air to the north helped to develop heavy banding. Front that the moisture was placed along lagged a bit more than expected as well.

What did I learn: When a strong jet stream filters in really moist air from the tropical Pacific with cold air in place, keep the forecast on the higher end.