Weekend Weather and Winter Storm Golden Corral Overeats

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Many of us have dug or will dig our way out of the snow to get to where we’re going today. Here’s what to expect:

Current (~7am) Temperatures:

  • Erie, PA:  26
  • Franklin, PA:  23
  • New Castle, PA: 25
  • Butler, PA:  27
  • Pittsburgh (KAGC): 30
  • Uniontown, PA: 28
  • State College, PA: 28
  • Frederick, MD:  34
  • BWI Airport, MD:  33
  • DC (KDCA):  37


Western PA:

  • Today: Risk of snow, especially in the south. Highs: Upper 20s/Low 30s Overnight Lows:Teens
  • Saturday: Chance of snow mainly early. Highs: 20s Overnight Lows: Upper single digits/teens
  • Sunday: Chance of snow. Highs: 20s  Overnight Lows: Upper single digits/teens

DC Region:

Main threat to continue: Refreezing water from melting snow, slushy/slick roads

  • Today: Chance of snow moves in late tonight  Highs:  Upper 30s/Low 40s Overnight Lows: Upper 20s/low 30s
  • Saturday: Snow early. Clearing out later in the day  Highs: Mid to upper 30s.  Overnight Lows: Upper teens to mid 20s.
  • Sunday: Dry and partly sunny.  Highs: Low to mid 30s. Overnight Lows: Teens/low 20s


Why did my forecast bust with Winter Storm Golden Corral?

Overall: Fail

  • Final Total Snowfall
  • Actual Total Snowfall

Map courtesy of NWS Eastern Regional Headquarters

  • I should have went wetter with my forecast.  00z models went wetter as another westward shift by NAM and GFS occurred. Euro stayed on course from a week out of the storm. Leaned towards Euro, but GFS model scared me. America sucked with this storm. Made forecast before then, but no excuses.
  • Temperatures were colder than the forecast in the Southeast during their bout with the winter storm. Coworkers said that Raleigh was only in the mid 20s at one point in the afternoon which was colder than the forecast. Colder temperatures down south should have been a precursor to colder temperatures in the DC region, allowing for less mixing to fall north and west of downtown DC.
  • Storm just overperformed. Moisture was plentiful. Cold air was plentiful. Heavy snow was really heavy and moved slowly. Some of the radar images of heavy snow were intense. Near 50 dbz reflectiviites up in Frederick, MD at one point on the radar, which is not common with snow.
  • One can’t help remember last year’s bust in DC. Lots of warm air last year helped keep the mass amounts of snow in the forecast away from much of downtown DC. That storm was in March though, this was at the right time. Snowquester or Saturn or “stupid busted forecast.” Whatever name you want to call it.
  • Too conservative with forecast. Thought more warm air or dry air would mix in. Try to be realistic with my forecasts, but in the case of the overperforming storm, conservative is not good.

Have a wonderful weekend folks!