Potential Coastal Storm Thanksgiving Eve into Thanksgiving (Nov. 26 – Nov. 27)

Well you picked a bad time to potentially produce a coastal storm Mother Nature. A day where a lot of folks travel is the day where there could be a potential storm that could bring quite a bit of wintry weather to the East Coast. My goal is to keep you safe on your travels, not to get ratings by hyping a storm. A lot can still happen in 3 days, but here are some notes and suggestions:

Possible Scenarios/Notes:

  • GFS and Euro models have come into better agreement. Showing that potential for plenty of moisture is possible along the coast
  • The NAM is usually pretty inaccurate with a forecast this far out, especially with coastal storms, so its scenario of the storm pushing out to sea should be taken lightly
  • Amount of snow depends on how much cold air can filter in. It is still November and not January or February, so potential for all of this to be snow along the I-95 corridor is unlikely.
  • Areas further away from the coast have a better chance of seeing snow than areas right along the coast. However, if precipitation rates are heavy enough, snow can fall and accumulate quickly

Start Times:

  • Wednesday morning for Washington, D.C.
  • Wednesday late morning/early afternoon for Philadelphia and New York City
  • Wednesday early to mid afternoon for Boston

End Times:

  • Thursday morning for Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia
  • Thursday late morning/early afternoon for New York City
  • Thursday early to mid afternoon for Boston

What Would Happen If Storm Tracks Stay the Same:

  • Rain changes over to snow. Wintry mix potential during the transition.
  • Areas further away from the coast could see a better chance of more significant snowfall.
  • Snow or Mix wraps up early on Thursday for DC, Philly, NYC and during the afternoon for Boston.

How Much Snow:

  • Still yet to be determined
  • The Euro model spits out at least 8″ from western NC to New England within 24 hours, with higher amounts towards New England. The Euro model’s cumulative snowfall does not do a good job with borderline rain/wintry mix/snow events though.
  • The GFS spits out more of a 4-8″ scenario, with pockets of 8-12″ possible from VA to New England. The GFS does a better job depicting rain vs. snow in borderline events. However, the GFS storm track tends to waver a lot more than the Euro.

Conclusions:

  • A coastal storm is likely.
  • If you are traveling from/to DC, Philly, NYC, Boston and can leave before Wednesday I suggest doing so.
  • IF the tracks remain where they are, some areas further from the coast in VA, MD, eastern PA, NJ, and NY could see significant snowfall. Areas right along the coast could see more of a slop fest with rain, snow, and wintry mix.
  • New England will probably see highest snowfall totals from this system, even towards the coast.