Category Archives: Frost Advisories

Winter Storm Warning/Winter Storm Advisory For Western PA

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What: A wintry mess will move northward tonight into Tuesday.
Timing: Tonight into Tuesday. (Below is HRRR Model precipitation type for 8PM Tonight, 12AM Tuesday, 4AM Tuesday, and 7AM Tuesday respectively)
Effects:
-Erie: I think it stays all snow in this area and that 4-8″ of snow is expected here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more than that depending on how far the rain snow line moves north and where that heavy band sets up.
– Oil City/Mercer/Titusville: Area I am most concerned about. Will stay as snow during most of the event, but could transition over to freezing rain by the morning. I think these areas could see 4-8″ of snow with potential for locally more depending on how much warm air advection causes the rain snow line to move north. If could air wins out, I could see up to 12″ of snow in some spots within this area. Snow could be heavy at times. The further north and west you are into western PA and eastern Ohio, the more likely you’ll see higher amounts of snow.
– Butler: Start out as snow before changing over to a rain snow mix and then over to freezing rain/rain for most of the event. I think they could see 2-4″ of snow or so before it washes away. Rain will transition back over to snow before the event ends though.
-Pittsburgh and southward: Looks to start out as a rain and snow mix before changing over to rain overnight into Tuesday. Freezing rain could also cause for slick roadways. Could see maybe and inch or 2 by the end of it.
–East of Pittsburgh in the mountains: More freezing rain expected than anything. Snow and rain could mix in at times though. Could see up to a 0.5″ of ice, which is very significant.
Hazards:
– Icy roads, especially east of Pittsburgh in the mountains and north near I-80
– Snow covered roads
– Heavy snow at times in NW PA
Risks With Forecast:
– More warm air advection could decrease snow totals from Butler County to Venango County
– Colder air could increase totals, which I think is more likely with the timing of this system overnight
What to do:
– Stay off the roads if you don’t have to be on them, mainly overnight into Tuesday morning.
– If you have to drive, take it easy. If you live in the mountains east of Pittsburgh, I suggest staying off the roads.

Winter Storm To Impact Mid-Atlantic/Southern Northeast

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Final Forecast Snow Totals Through Sunday:

  • DC: 18-24″
  • Baltimore: 18-24″
  • Frederick, MD: 18-24″
  • Philly: 12-18″
  • NYC: 5-10″
  • Oil City: 0″ ‘
  • Pittsburgh: 2-5″
  • South Hills: 3-6″
  • Uniontown, PA: 8-12″

Locally heavier amounts of snow are possible, especially near DC/Baltimore.

Risks With Forecast:

  • Generally conservative with my forecasts
  • Slow moving storm = higher snow amounts are possible.

Main Threats:

  • Heavy snow Friday afternoon through Saturday
  • Wind gusts up to 60mph possible near DC/Baltimore/NYC
  • Power outages possible with heavy snow and wind, especially near DC/Baltimore/NYC

Best Way To Go About Dealing With This Storm:

  • Stay the hell home if you are in DC/MD/Northern VA/Philly. Don’t go out and try to drive in the snow.
  • In DC/Northern MD/Philly, have some sort of heat source that isn’t run on electricity
  • Make sure you have plenty of food to eat.
  • BE SAFE!

 

Summary of Next 3 Days and Thoughts on Friday/Saturday Winter Storm

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Thoughts on Storm Friday:

  • Winter storm likely to occur on Friday/Saturday. Rain to impact SE while significant snow/mix is possible in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
  • Still too early to tell the exact track of the system. Start to narrow margin of error and potentially get into specifics on Wednesday.
  • Latest models have recently been shifting the system southward. However, some models still keep southern PA in a significant band of snow.
  • Recent cold air will help snow to stick in areas that are near the rain snow line where the heaviest snow will likely fall.
  • DC/Philly/NYC are currently in a good zone for getting significant snow, but like I said, models are still shifting the track of the storm.
  • I’ll try to keep you updated with my thoughts. Be aware of this and plan accordingly.

3 Day Forecasts:

Western PA:

Today is obviously a cold day in western PA as mostly cloudy skies stick around and some flurries may fly around at times during the day. NW PA (Erie, Crawford, Warren, McKean Counties) remains under a lake effect snow warning until Tuesday morning as 3-6″ of additional snowfall is expected with potential for higher amounts in localized areas. Tuesday will bring partly sunny skies to SW PA while NW PA looks at a chance of snow showers and mostly cloudy skies. Wednesday looks to keep a chance of accumulating snow showers to western PA. Up to a few inches could fall in most locations in western PA. Highs will only reach into the upper single digits to low 10s today before highs bump up into the low to mid 10s on Tuesday and mid 10s to low 20s on Wednesday. Lows will drop into the mid single digits tonight before mid to upper single digits move in on Tuesday night and mid 10s roll in on Wednesday night.

DC Region: 

Dry conditions will hold across the DC Region through Tuesday as partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies are expected. Wednesday will see an increase in clouds and a chance of some light snow during the evening. Afternoon highs will rise into the low to mid 20s today before mid 20s move in on Tuesday and low to mid 30s roll in on Wednesday. Lows will drop into the low to mid 10s tonight before mid to upper 10s move in on Tuesday night and mid to upper 20s track in on Wednesday night.

Have a fantastic weekend folks!

Summary of the Weekend Weather in Western PA and DC Region

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Western PA:

Looking like mostly cloudy skies will persist throughout the day today before a threat of rain moves in during the night before changing over to snow by Saturday morning. A chance of snow will persist into Saturday, mainly early. Sunday will see a chance of snow move back into the region. Highs will rise into the mid to upper 40s today before temperatures decline into the 30s by the afternoon on Saturday. Mid to upper 20s are expected on Sunday. Lows will drop into the mid 30s tonight before low to mid 20s move in on Saturday night and low to mid 10s settle in on Sunday night.

DC Region: 

Rain will move into the region later tonight before partly cloudy skies move in on Saturday. Clouds will increase on Sunday. Highs will rise into the low to mid 50s today before low to mid 50s settle in on Saturday and mid to upper 30s on Sunday. Lows will drop into the low 40s tonight before low to mid 30s move in on Saturday night and low to mid 20s roll in on Sunday night.

Have a fantastic weekend folks!

Bitterly Cold, But Dry. Warming Up A Bit Into the End of the Week.

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Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat:  Cold today and tonight. Wind chills in the single digits.

  • Today: Mostly sunny. Highs: Mid to Upper 20s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 10s
  • Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs: Mid 30s to Low 40s Overnight Lows: Upper 10s to Mid 20s
  • Thursday: Increasing clouds. Highs: Mid to Upper 40s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 30s

DC Region: 

Main threat: Frigid mainly tonight.

  • Today: Mostly sunny. Highs: Low to Mid 30s Overnight Lows: Upper 10s/Low 20s
  • Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs: Upper 30s/Low 40s Overnight Lows: Upper 20s/Low 30s
  • Thursday: Chance of spotty showers. Highs: Low to Mid 40s Overnight Lows: Upper 30s/Low 40s

Good News: Freezing temperatures start to loosen their grip into the end of the week.

Bad News: Rain and snow move into western PA late this week into the weekend. Rain chance continues into this weekend for DC.

Cooling Down. Snow For The New Year in Northwest PA. DC Dries Out After Today.

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Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat:  Areas in NW PA could see some snow accumulations on roads New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. Nothing too significant though.

  • Today: Chance of showers, mainly later today. Highs: 40s. Near 50 in SW PA Overnight Lows: Upper 20s to Mid 30s
  • New Year’s Eve: Chance of lake-effect snow in NW PA. Flurries possible elsewhere. Highs: 30s Overnight Lows: 20s.
  • New Year’s Day: Chance of lake-effect snow. Light accumulations mainly in NW PA.  Highs: Low to Mid 30s Overnight Lows: Low 20s

DC Region: 

Main threat: Wet roads possible today.

  • Today: Cloudy. Showers likely. Highs: Mid to Upper 50s Overnight Lows: Mid to Upper 40s
  • New Year’s Eve: Partly sunny. Highs: Low to Mid 50s Overnight Lows: Mid 30s to Low 40s
  • New Year’s Day: Partly sunny.  Highs: Mid 40s to Low 50s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 30s

Good News: For those of you winter lovers you get another taste of winter over the next several days. Conditions look to stay seasonal to above normal through the middle of January.

Bad News: Cooler conditions could cause more people to get sick.

Freezing Rain Potential in NW PA and Higher Elevations of Western PA Into Tonight. Be Safe!

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Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat:  Freezing rain potential into tonight, mainly for NW PA and higher elevations of western PA. Watch out for slick roads.

  • Today: Wintry mix today with freezing rain possibly moving in this afternoon/evening. Highs: 30s Overnight Lows: 30s. Temps increase overnight.
  • Tuesday: Rain likely in the morning. Chance decreases into the afternoon. Highs: Mid 40s to Low 50s Overnight Lows: 30s
  • Wednesday: Chance of showers. Highs: 40s Overnight Lows: 30s

DC Region: 

Main threat: Wet roads could cause for slippery road conditions tonight into Tuesday.

  • Today: Chance of rain increases into tonight. Highs: Mid to Upper 40s Overnight Lows: 40s. Temps increase overnight.
  • Tuesday: Rain likely in the morning. Chance decreases into the afternoon and evening. Highs: Mid 50s to Low 60s Overnight Lows: Mid 40s to Low 50s
  • Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Chance of rain late. Highs: Mid to Upper 50s Overnight Lows: Mid to Upper 40s

Good News: Cooler weather will move in this week for those who were complaining about the warmth. Temperatures increase overnight, helping to get rid of icing in W PA.

Bad News: Freezing rain could cause for dangerous roads in western PA. Cooler conditions move in after Tuesday.

5 Day Forecast: Warm, But Wet, Lead Up to Christmas

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Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat:  Rain chance moves in through the middle of the week.

  • Today: Chance of spotty showers. Highs: Mid 40s to Low 50s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 40s
  • Tuesday: Rain likely. Highs: Mid 50s to Low 60s Overnight Lows: Mid 40s to Low 50s
  • Wednesday: Rain likely. Highs: Low to Mid 60s Overnight Lows: Mid 50s to Low 60s
  • Christmas Eve: Chance of showers. Highs: 60s Overnight Lows: 40s
  • Christmas Day: Partly cloudy. Highs: Low to Mid 50s Overnight Lows: Mid to Upper 30s

DC Region: 

Main threat: Rainy conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday could cause some wet roads for holiday travel.

  • Today: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of showers late. Highs: Low to Mid 50s Overnight Lows: Mid 40s to Low 50s
  • Tuesday: Rain likely. Highs: Mid 50s to Low 60s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 50s
  • Wednesday: Rain likely. Highs: Low to Mid 60s Overnight Lows: Upper 50s/Low 60s
  • Christmas Eve: Chance of spotty showers. Highs: Upper 60s to Mid 70s Overnight Lows: Upper 50s/Low 60s
  • Christmas Day: Mid 60s to Low 70s Highs: Low to Mid 40s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 40s

Good News: Warmth persists into Christmas for those who don’t want a white Christmas.

Bad News: Rain looks to put a damper on travel plans. But I’m sure many would take that over ice and snow. Christmas day looks like a nice day though.

6 Day Forecast Because It Is the Cool Thing To Do

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Western PA:

Main threat:  Wet roads today. Chance of snow Friday and Saturday. Could see 1 or 2″ in NW PA.

  • Today: Rain. Highs: Mid 40s to Low 50s Overnight Lows: Mid 20s to Low 30s
  • Friday: Chance of snow. Highs: Low to Mid 30s Overnight Lows: Low 20s
  • Saturday: Chance of snow. Highs: Low to Mid 30s Overnight Lows: Upper 10s/Low 20s
  • Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs: Low to Mid 40s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 30s
  • Monday: Chance of rain. Highs: Upper 40s/Low 50s Overnight Lows: Mid 30s to Low 40s
  • Tuesday: Partly sunny. Highs: 40s Overnight Lows: Mid 30s to Low 40s

DC Region: 

Main threat: Wet roads today.

  • Today: Rain. Highs: Mid 50s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 40s
  • Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs: Mid 40s to Low 50s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 30s
  • Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs: Low to Mid 40s Overnight Lows: Upper 20s/Low 30s
  • Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs: Mid to Upper 40s Overnight Lows: Mid to Upper 30s
  • Monday: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of showers late. Highs: Low to Mid 50s Overnight Lows: Mid to Upper 40s
  • Tuesday: Chance of showers. Highs: Mid 50s to Low 60s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 40s

Good News: A chance of snow this Friday and Saturday for those who like snow. Warmth on the other side of that for those who like warmth.

Bad News: A taste of winter moves in on Friday and Saturday. Chance of moisture lingers in western PA for much of the next 6 days.

Highs in the 70s For Pittsburgh in December is Truly A Miracle on Penn Avenue.

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Western PA:

Main threat:  None.

  • Today: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a stray shower. Highs: Upper 50s/Low 60s Overnight Lows: Upper 40s to Mid 50s
  • Saturday: Partly sunny. Slight chance of spotty showers. Highs: 60s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 50s
  • Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs: Mid 60s to Low 70s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 50s

DC Region: 

Main threat: None.

  • Today: Partly cloudy Highs: Low to Mid 60s Overnight Lows: Upper 40s to Mid 50s
  • Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs: Mid to Upper 60s Overnight Lows: Mid 50s
  • Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs: Mid 60s to Low 70s Overnight Lows: Mid 50s

Good News: Toasty weather for the weekend. Enjoy it, especially Sunday!

Bad News: Conditions start to cool down next week. Wet weather starts the work week.