Winter Storm Snowmagedocalypsicane (Tonight-Wednesday Winter Storm) **FINAL FORECAST**

**NOTE: Ice accumulations >.1″ are significant and potentially dangerous

Snow/Ice Forecast:

  • Erie: 8-12″
  • Oil City: 5-10″
  • Franklin: 4-8″
  • Butler: 3-6″
  • New Castle: 3-6″
  • Pittsburgh: 1-3″ dahntahn; 2-4″ in the Burbs. (Up to .2″ of ice)
  • Uniontown: Maybe an inch or 2. Sleet/rain mainly.
  • Bradford: 6-12″
  • State College: 3-6″. (<0.1″ of ice)
  • Breezewood: 1-3″ of snow. (Up to 0.5″ of ice)
  • Scranton: 5-10″
  • Reading: 1-3″ of snow. (Up to 0.3″ of ice)
  • Philly: 1-2″ of snow. (Up to 0.3″ of ice). Burbs north could see 2-4″ of snow (Up to 0.5″ of ice)
  • NYC: 2-4″. (Up to 0.4″ of ice)
  • Frederick, MD: (Up to 0.4 inches of ice)
  • DC: Mainly rain with some crap potentially mixed in. Ice should stay north of city.
  • Start: Outer bands move in by 5pm. Around 6pm steady snow moves into western PA
  • End: Around 6pm Wednesday
  • Biggest threats: Heavy Snow, Freezing Rain/Ice, Low Visibilities, Untreated Roads, Hilly Roads Covered In Ice. Most extreme cases: Power lines down from heavy snow/significant ice.
  • Up to 0.5 inches of ice in southern PA and northern MD.

I joke about the winter storm names, but:

  • Drive safe. DO NOT drive if you do not have to
  • Stick to main roads and away from big hills. Especially if icy.
  • Don’t overexert yourself shoveling snow. (Heavy wet snow = Heart attack snow)
  • Be safe and build some extended family members of mine!

Winter Storm Snowmagedocalypsicane (Tonight-Wednesday Winter Storm)


A ridiculous name I know, but here are your forecast snowfall totals for tonight into tomorrow (updated map will be up this afternoon after I work):

  • Erie: 6-12″
  •  Oil City: 5-10″
  •  Franklin: 4-8″
  •  Butler: 3-6″
  •  Pittsburgh: 1-3″ dahntahn; 2-4″ in the Burbs. Up to .2″ of ice, mainly east
  •  Uniontown: Maybe an inch or 2. Sleet/rain mainly.
  •  Bradford: 6-12″
  •  State College: 3-6″. <0.1″ of ice
  •  Breezewood: 1-3″ of snow. Up to 0.5″ of ice.
  •  Scranton: 5-10″
  •  Reading: 1-3″ of snow. Up to 0.3″ of ice.
  •  Philly: 1-2″ of snow. Up to 0.3″ of ice. Burbs north could see 2-4″ of snow
  •  NYC: 2-4″. Up to 0.4″ of ice.
  •  Frederick, MD: Up to 0.4 inches of ice.
  •  DC: Mainly rain with some crap potentially mixed in. Ice should stay north of city.

NOTE: Ice accumulations >.1″ are significant and potentially dangerous

  • Start: Around 8pm Tuesday (Moves into PA)
  • End: Around 8pm Wednesday
  • Biggest threats: Heavy Snow, Freezing Rain/Ice, Low Visibilities, Untreated Roads, Hilly Roads Covered In Ice
  • Freezing rain potential worst in south-central PA and northern MD. Philly and Pittsburgh could see some ice accumulations as well.

Tips

  • DO NOT DRIVE if you do not have to, especially tonight through Wednesday morning.
  • Travel Slowly and with Caution. Low and slow like cooking BBQ.
  • Be safe folks!

Initial Forecast for Winter Storm Tuesday Night into Wednesday

  • Start: Around 9pm Tuesday (Moves into PA)
  • End: Around 8pm Wednesday
  • Biggest threat: Heavy Snow, Freezing Rain, Low Visibilities, Untreated Roads
  • Heavy snow band could set up along rain/snow line
  • Lots of mixing rain/sleet/ snow with this storm. Risks to lower end of forecast in southern PA.
  • Should stay mainly snow across northern PA
  • Central PA holds biggest threat of freezing rain. Up to 0.5 inch of ice could occur in some areas in the south-central PA mountains.
  • Should start off as snow in southern PA before changing over to freezing rain/sleet/rain. Western PA will change back over to snow again, mainly in the mountains.

Winter Storm Snowmagedocalypsicane (Tues. Night-Wed.)

  • When: Tuesday night into Wednesday
  • Where: Mid-Atlantic to New England. Western PA included
  • What To Expect: Start as rain in much of PA. Far northern PA could see mix to start before changing over to snow. Solid 4-8″ across far northern PA. Pittsburgh could get hosed with snow with mainly rain before changing over to freezing rain/sleet/snow/rain/kitchen sink. Southern PA freezing rain potential could be hazardous.
  • Biggest threats: Heavy wet snow, ice from western VA to central PA, Low visibilities, Untreated roads.
  • If you have any questions about the storm, feel free to ask.

Be safe!

Update On Wintry Weather Next Week – First Week of February

  • For the DC Region, it looks like the GFS model trended towards the Euro model in the near term as several inches of snow are possible on Monday. Should be a borderline event that may start as rain/sleet before changing to snow. A heavy band of snow will probably set up somewhere along the rain/snow line. Storm during mid next week looks to stay mainly a wintry mix as of right now. Lots of uncertainties though still.
  • For Western PA, a sloppy day today and tomorrow as rain/snow/sleet/freezing drizzle are possible today before changing over to snow tomorrow. As for the big snowstorm in the middle of the week, still a lot of uncertainty. I think that mostly snow stays in northern PA and northward into New England while southern PA and southward looks at a mixed bag of wintry tricks.

As always, I’ll keep you updated. Stay safe everyone!

My Biggest Pet Peeves As a Meteorologist

  • Meteorologists/weather nerds who post pictures of model total snowfall, especially without explanation. It’s one model run out of many, not a forecast. Most people don’t understand this, see the picture, and take it as gospel. You’re not a meteorologist, you’re a “modelogist.”
  • News outlets that show Euro/GFS model runs 5+ days out from event. The weather is forever changing, a lot can happen in a week.
  • Weather enthusiasts that say “if this summer event happened in winter, it would drop 100 inches of snow.” More moisture available in summer than winter, not to mention borderline snow/rain events aren’t usually 10:1 snow/rain ratios
  • The usual stereotypes we get as a meteorologist and how we are sometimes taken lightly in events we should be taken quite seriously. Sensationalism and communication can hurt this. Atlanta’s ice/snow event is a decent example.

Verifications (The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of My Forecast) from Winter Storm Jabba the Hutt:

  • Good: Not too bad from north of DC to NYC (Some areas got more than a foot from near Philly into NJ and near NYC which I was afraid of a bit later in the day. Overall not bad)
  • Bad: Downtown DC didn’t get much but not too far outside the city  significantly more
  • Ugly: Pittsburgh, State College, Richmond didn’t get much at all when I had 2-4″ for Pittsburgh and State College and 2-5″ for Richmond

SNOW TOTALS:

  • My Forecast in underlined bold; Actuals in normal font
  • (Values courtesy of the National Weather Service)

DC Region: 6-10″

  • Reagan National Airport: 3.8″ at 12:00AM 1/22
  • National Arboretum: 3.9″ at 8:00AM 1/22
  • 1 mi NNE National Zoo: 7.0″ at 11:56PM 1/21
  • 1 mi E of Washington: 6.0″ at 10:30PM 1/21
  • 1 mi NW of Gaithersburg: 7.8″ at 11:30PM 1/21
  • 1 mi S of Arlington: 5.8″ at 1:30AM 1/22

Frederick: 6-10″

Frederick County:

  •    1 mi E Walkersville: 9.8 at 7:00AM 1/22
  •    4 mi SSW Frederick: 8.6″ at 7:00AM 1/22
  •    3 mi NNW New Market: 7.0″ at 4:45AM 1/22
  •    1 mi SSE Thurmont: 7.0″ at 7:00AM 1/22
  •    2 mi SE Emmitsburg: 6.0″ at 6:45AM 1/22

Baltimore: 6-10″

  • 2 mi ESE of Arlington: 7.5″ at 10:30PM 1/21
  • 1 mi N of Fells Point: 8.0 ” at 11:35PM 1/21

Philly Region: 6-12″

  • Philadelphia Office of Emergency Mgmt: 14″ at 12:00AM 1/22
  • Philadelphia Airport: 13.5″ at 12:00AM 1/22
  • King of Prussia: 10.1″ at 12:20AM 1/22

 

Reading: 6-12″

  •    Huffs Church: 6.0″ at 7:45 PM 1/21
  •    Kutztown: 5.0″ at 7:15 PM 1/21

NYC: 6-12″ with higher potential out towards Long Island.

  • La Guardia Airport: 8.1″ at 12:00AM 1/22
  • JFK Airport: 7.1″ at 7:00AM 1/22
  • Central Park: 11.5″ at 7:00AM 1/22
  • Upper West Side: 11.5″ at 950PM 1/21
  • Islip: 11.2″ at 6:30AM 1/22
  • Riverhead: 9.6″ at 4:30 AM 1/22

Pittsburgh: 2-4″

  • Pittsburgh: 0.5″ at 7:59AM 1/21
  • Moon Township: 0.8″ 4:56PM 1/21
  • Penn Hills 3.0″ at 9:30AM 1/21

Uniontown: 3-6″

  • Uniontown: 4.5″ at 3:48PM 1/21

State College: 2-4″

  • State College: 1.5″ at 8:00AM 1/22

Richmond: 2-5″

  • Downtown Richmond: 1.5″ at 9:30PM

Reedville, VA: 2-5″

  • Reedville: 3.5″ at 10:00PM 1/21

Milford, CT: 6-12″

  • Milford: 8.0″ at 11:00PM 1/21

Oil City, PA: Dusting to an 1″

  • No Accumulating snow

For Additional Snow Totals at Different Locations:

Snow Totals For Winter Storm Jabba The Hutt (Jan 21-22, 2014)

Frost Advisories: “Let’s cut the crap. Here’s your final snow forecast”
When will it move in: Eastern PA and DC (7am-9am)
When will it leave: Overnight tonight
Worst of Event: Afternoon into Evening
Biggest Threat: Heavy snows, blowing snow, low visibilities, slick roads. Driving could be very dangerous. DO NOT drive if you do not need to.

Snow Totals through Wednesday morning:
DC Region: 6-10″
Frederick: 6-10″
Baltimore: 6-10″
Philly Region: 6-12″
Reading: 6-12″
NYC: 6-12″ with higher potential out towards Long Island.
Pittsburgh: 2-4″
Uniontown: 3-6″
State College: 2-4″
Richmond: 2-5″
Reedville, VA: 2-5″
Milford, CT: 6-12″
Oil City, PA: Dusting to an 1″

Be safe and stay warm!

2nd Weekend Shift/Verification-So-Far Edition

In the picture: Snow totals through last night overlaying my forecast. Today looks a bit drier with still the threat of lake-effect snow. Erie down to Crawford County could get a few more inches, where east of Erie (North East/Harborcreek) could get 5+” by tonight. Main story: Gonna be cold the next few days. Another weak system on Tuesday could drop a few more inches on western and central PA. Have a good Sunday Sunday SUNDAY!