Coastal Storm Is Here. Your Driving Speed Should Be Like Cooking BBQ: Low and Slow. Safe Travels!

Well the coastal storm is here. Hope many of you got out early safely and that many who have to drive today are going to take it slow and easy today if they have to drive during the day. As for the storm, it looks like a heavier snow band could elevate snow potential from the mountains of western MD to south-central PA and into northeastern PA. Here’s my snow total forecast from last night, with potential heavier local amounts to the 3-6″ range near where the heavy snow band is:
Snow Totals From Coastal Storm By Location (Through Early Thursday Morning):

Point Forecast Snow Totals (Heavier local amounts possible in Central/Eastern PA):

  • DC: Mix-2″
  • Philly: 2-4″
  • New York City: 2-5″
  • Boston: 3-6″
  • State College, PA: 3-6″
  • Frederick, MD: 3-6″
  • Scranton, PA: 5-10″
  • Hartford, CT: 6-10″
  • Pittsburgh, PA: Trace-2″
  • Oil City, PA: 0″-Flurries

Risks: To the higher side for Central and Eastern PA. 6-10″ could expand westward if areas see heavier snow band. Immediate coast from southern NJ to VA could only see rain.

Current (~6:30-7:00am) Temperatures:
  • Erie, PA: 34; Wind Chill: 34
  • Franklin, PA: 28; Wind Chill: 21
  • New Castle, PA: 28; Wind Chill: 28
  • Butler, PA: 28; Wind Chill: 20
  • Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC): 33; Wind Chill: 27
  • Uniontown, PA: 32; Wind Chill: 32
  • State College, PA: 32; Wind Chill: 25
  • Frederick, MD: 41; Wind Chill: 35
  • BWI Airport, MD: 42; Wind Chill: 42
  • DC (KDCA): 47; Wind Chill: 44

Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat:  Western PA will continue to see snow east of Pittsburgh. Chance of snow for far western PA. Slick roads possible, especially in the mountains.

  • Today: Chance of snow showers in far western PA. Snow continues towards central PA. Highs: Low to Mid 30s Overnight Lows: Mid 20s to Low 30s
  • Thursday: Chance of light snow showers. Highs: Mid to Upper 30s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 20s
  • Friday: Mostly cloudy. Afternoon Highs: Upper 30s/40s Overnight Lows: Mid to Upper 20s

DC Region:

Main threat: Wednesday brings a threat of rain, mix, and snow to the region. Snow threat increases further north and west of DC. The coast looks at more of a rain/mix/snow event. Travel impact will be major.

  • Today: Rain changes over to a mix/snow. Accumulations mainly N and W of DC itself. Afternoon Highs: 30s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 30s
  • Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Highs: Upper 30s/Low 40s Overnight Lows: Upper 20s to Low 30s
  • Friday: Mostly sunny. Afternoon Highs: Low to Mid 40s Overnight Lows: Low 30s

Good News: Worst weather ends by tonight/early tomorrow.

Bad News: Major traffic delays possible today with holiday traffic + weather.

Final Snow Forecast for Coastal Storm (Wednesday Nov. 26/Early Thursday Nov. 27)

My Final Snow Total Forecast:

  • Goal: Getting to where you need to go safely
  • Risks: To the higher side for Central and Eastern PA. 6-10″ could expand westward further. If precipitation rates are high enough towards coast, higher risks are possible there.
  • Start Time: DC – 1AM-4AM; Philly 3AM-6AM; NYC 4AM-7AM; Boston 5AM-8AM. Most locations will start as rain.
  • End Time: DC & Philly 7PM-10PM; NYC 9PM-12AM; Boston 4AM-7AM Thu. Most locations end as a mix or snow.

Point Forecast Snow Totals:

  • DC: Mix-2″
  • Philly: 2-4″
  • New York City: 2-5″
  • Boston: 3-6″
  • State College, PA: 3-6″
  • Frederick, MD: 3-6″
  • Scranton, PA: 5-10″
  • Hartford, CT: 6-10″
  • Pittsburgh, PA: Trace-2″
  • Oil City, PA: 0″-Flurries

Coastal Storm Wednesday. Highest Snow Totals From Central PA to New England. Major Travel Delays Likely.

Well the main focus is on the coastal storm that will track up the coast tomorrow.  This storm will bring a mix of rain, sleet, and snow to the coastal regions while areas further inland could see substantial snowfall. For the near term, however it looks like conditions will stay dry today before moisture starts to move in overnight and into tomorrow morning. Precipitation will start to move out in the DC Region on Thursday while Western PA could see some light snow showers. Highs will cool down into the 30s for Western PA into the middle of the week. The DC Region will see highs in the 30s and 40s by the middle of the week. Lows in the 20s and 30s are expected during the mid week. Hope you have a great day. Safe travels everyone!
Snow Totals From Coastal Storm By Location (Through Early Thursday Morning):
  • DC: Mix-2″
  • Philly: 2-4″
  • New York City: 1-3″
  • Boston: 3-6″
  • State College, PA: 3-6″
  • Frederick, MD: 3-6″
  • Scranton, PA: 4-8″
  • Hartford, CT: 6-10″
  • Pittsburgh, PA: Trace-2″
  • Oil City, PA: 0″-Flurries
Current (~7-7:30am) Temperatures:
  • Erie, PA: 39; Wind Chill: 31
  • Franklin, PA: 34; Wind Chill: 25
  • New Castle, PA: 36; Wind Chill: 36
  • Butler, PA: 37; Wind Chill: 30
  • Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC): 38; Wind Chill: 32
  • Uniontown, PA: 38; Wind Chill: 32
  • State College, PA: 41; Wind Chill: 36
  • Frederick, MD: 54; Wind Chill: 52
  • BWI Airport, MD: 54; Wind Chill: 51
  • DC (KDCA): 56; Wind Chill: 56

Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat:  Chance of snow across southern PA Wed. Eastern PA will see snow Wed. Western PA could see some lighter snow, especially towards central PA Wed. 

  • Today: Partly cloudy. Afternoon Highs: Upper 30s/40s Overnight Lows: 20s/Low 30s
  • Wednesday: Chance of snow showers. Especially towards central PA. Highs: Mid to Upper 30s Overnight Lows: Mid 20s to Low 30s
  • Thursday: Chance of light snow showers. Highs: Mid 30s to Low 40s Overnight Lows: 20s

DC Region:

Main threat: Wednesday brings a threat of rain, mix, and snow to the region. Snow threat increases further north and west of DC. The coast looks at more of a rain/mix/snow event. Travel impact will be major, especially if heading north or west out of DC.

  • Today: Partly cloudy. Chance of rain during the night. Afternoon Highs: Mid to Upper 50s Overnight Lows: Mid 30s to Low 40s
  • Wednesday: Rain changes over to a mix/snow. Afternoon Highs: 30s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 30s
  • Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Highs: Upper 30s/Low 40s Overnight Lows: Mid to Upper 20s

Good News: Warmer temperatures move back in towards the middle of next week.

Bad News: Coastal storm will likely cause major travel delays.

First Forecast Snow Total Map For Coastal Storm (Wed. November 26)

  • I know the totals aren’t a lot, but the fact that it will be during holiday traffic and heavy amounts in a relatively short period of time is why it might take double the amount of time to get to where you’re going if you are traveling
  • Starts in the early morning and ends in DC/Philly/NYC during the late afternoon/evening. Boston continues precipitation into the night
  • Rain will changeover to mix/snow. More rain towards the coast. More snow further inland.
  • Risks are that models continue to trend further eastward, decreasing snowfall totals as you push the moisture source further east.wi
  • Risks also include the fact that it is November and the lack of a cold air source will make it difficult to pull a lot of cold air southward
  • Western PA: Don’t expect much if anything out of this.

Windy Today. Coastal Storm Wednesday into Early Thursday.

Well the main story is Wednesday’s storm system moving up the East Coast. Who has the best chance to see significant snow? I’d say areas from the mountains of western Virginia into eastern PA and New England have the best chance to see significant snow. Areas along the coast look to see more of a rain/mix/snow event, with a higher weight on the rain/mix part. Despite plenty of moisture, it is November and there is no strong high pressure system in the central U.S. to guide stronger cold air to the coast. That being said, if precipitation rates are heavy enough, snow could fall faster, not allowing the warm ground to melt the snow as fast before it accumulates. Still not sure about snow totals, but the storm may start a little sooner than expected, with early Wednesday morning starting the threat of precipitation in the DC Region. If you are traveling on Wednesday near the I-95 corridor between DC and Boston, I don’t suggest doing so. If you could leave Tuesday that would be great. If you need to wait until Thursday, that would also be fine. My plans are still up in the air for heading to Western PA. If you have any questions please ask. Have a great day and be safe traveling!
Current (~7-7:30am) Temperatures:
  • Erie, PA: 59; Wind Chill: 59
  • Franklin, PA: 55; Wind Chill: 50
  • New Castle, PA: 60; Wind Chill: 60
  • Butler, PA: 59; Wind Chill: 59
  • Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC): 61; Wind Chill: 61
  • Uniontown, PA: 61; Wind Chill: 61
  • State College, PA: 55; Wind Chill: 52
  • Frederick, MD: 64; Wind Chill: 64
  • BWI Airport, MD: 65; Wind Chill: 65
  • DC (KDCA): 61; Wind Chill: 61

Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat: Windy today. Gusts up to 50 mph possible. Chance of snow across southern and eastern PA Wednesday. Western PA should stay mainly dry Wednesday, although further western shift could increase risk of snow.

  • Today: Chance of lingering showers. Highs: 60s Overnight Lows: 30s
  • Tuesday: Slight Chance of rain/snow in NW PA.  Highs: Upper 30s/40s Overnight Lows: 20s/Low30s
  • Wednesday: Chance of snow showers. Especially towards central and eastern PA. Highs: Mid to Upper 30s Overnight Lows: Mid 20s to Low 30s

DC Region:

Main threat: Wednesday brings a threat of rain, mix, and snow to the region. Snow threat increases further inland while the coast looks at more of a rain/mix/snow event. Travel impact could be major.

  • Today: Chance of lingering showers. Highs: Low to Mid 70s Overnight Lows: Mid to Upper 20s
  • Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Chance of rain during the night. Afternoon Highs: Mid to Upper 50s Overnight Lows: Mid to Upper 30s
  • Wednesday: Rain changes over to a mix/snow. Afternoon Highs: 30s Overnight Lows: Low 30s

Good News: Warm temperatures stick around today. Warmth could

Bad News: Thanksgiving Eve brings potential for major travel impacts from coastal storm.

Potential Coastal Storm Thanksgiving Eve into Thanksgiving (Nov. 26 – Nov. 27)

Well you picked a bad time to potentially produce a coastal storm Mother Nature. A day where a lot of folks travel is the day where there could be a potential storm that could bring quite a bit of wintry weather to the East Coast. My goal is to keep you safe on your travels, not to get ratings by hyping a storm. A lot can still happen in 3 days, but here are some notes and suggestions:

Possible Scenarios/Notes:

  • GFS and Euro models have come into better agreement. Showing that potential for plenty of moisture is possible along the coast
  • The NAM is usually pretty inaccurate with a forecast this far out, especially with coastal storms, so its scenario of the storm pushing out to sea should be taken lightly
  • Amount of snow depends on how much cold air can filter in. It is still November and not January or February, so potential for all of this to be snow along the I-95 corridor is unlikely.
  • Areas further away from the coast have a better chance of seeing snow than areas right along the coast. However, if precipitation rates are heavy enough, snow can fall and accumulate quickly

Start Times:

  • Wednesday morning for Washington, D.C.
  • Wednesday late morning/early afternoon for Philadelphia and New York City
  • Wednesday early to mid afternoon for Boston

End Times:

  • Thursday morning for Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia
  • Thursday late morning/early afternoon for New York City
  • Thursday early to mid afternoon for Boston

What Would Happen If Storm Tracks Stay the Same:

  • Rain changes over to snow. Wintry mix potential during the transition.
  • Areas further away from the coast could see a better chance of more significant snowfall.
  • Snow or Mix wraps up early on Thursday for DC, Philly, NYC and during the afternoon for Boston.

How Much Snow:

  • Still yet to be determined
  • The Euro model spits out at least 8″ from western NC to New England within 24 hours, with higher amounts towards New England. The Euro model’s cumulative snowfall does not do a good job with borderline rain/wintry mix/snow events though.
  • The GFS spits out more of a 4-8″ scenario, with pockets of 8-12″ possible from VA to New England. The GFS does a better job depicting rain vs. snow in borderline events. However, the GFS storm track tends to waver a lot more than the Euro.

Conclusions:

  • A coastal storm is likely.
  • If you are traveling from/to DC, Philly, NYC, Boston and can leave before Wednesday I suggest doing so.
  • IF the tracks remain where they are, some areas further from the coast in VA, MD, eastern PA, NJ, and NY could see significant snowfall. Areas right along the coast could see more of a slop fest with rain, snow, and wintry mix.
  • New England will probably see highest snowfall totals from this system, even towards the coast.

 

 

The Weekend and Monday: The Time To Thaw Out

Cold conditions will linger today and tomorrow morning before temperatures rise through the weekend and Monday. A chance of lingering snow showers in NW PA today will give way to a chance of rain tomorrow and Sunday. SW PA could stay dry the next couple days before rain moves in on Sunday. Highs in the 20s today will rise into the 40s tomorrow before 50s settle in on Sunday. Lows in the teens tonight will rise into the 30s tomorrow night before 40s move in on Sunday night. The DC Region will see dry conditions over the next 3 days before a chance of rain moves in late Sunday night. Highs in the 30s today will rise into the 40s tomorrow before 50s move in on Sunday. Lows in the 20s tonight will bump up into the 30s tomorrow night before 50s hold steady Sunday night. A warm and wet start to next week will give way to colder conditions during much of next week. Conditions won’t be as cold as this past week. Sunday and Monday are good days to open the windows to get some fresh air before locking things down next week. Have a fantastic weekend folks!   
Current (~7-7:30am) Temperatures:
  • Erie, PA: 24; Wind Chill: 12
  • Franklin, PA: 16; Wind Chill: 7
  • New Castle, PA: 16; Wind Chill: 7
  • Butler, PA: 18; Wind Chill: 10
  • Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC): 18; Wind Chill: 8
  • Uniontown, PA: 17; Wind Chill: 12
  • State College, PA: 21; Wind Chill: 12
  • Frederick, MD: 32; Wind Chill: 26
  • BWI Airport, MD: 26; Wind Chill: 20
  • DC (KDCA): 31; Wind Chill: 23

Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat: Chilly today. Sloppy weekend into early next week.

  • Friday: Chance of snow lingers mainly in NW PA. Mostly cloudy, otherwise. Breezy. Highs: Mid to Upper 20s Overnight Lows: 10s (Wind Chills Near 0 Possible)
  • Saturday: Slight chance of snow early in NW PA. Changes over to rain. SW PA could stay dry. Breezy. Highs: Low to Mid 40s Overnight Lows: Mid 30s to Low 40s
  • Sunday: Chance of showers. Steadier rains move in later. Highs: Low to Mid 50s Overnight Lows: 40s

DC Region:

Main threat: Rain late Sunday night into Monday.

  • Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs: Mid to Upper 30s Overnight Lows: Mid to Upper 20s
  • Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs: Mid to Upper 40s Overnight Lows: Mid to Upper 30s
  • Sunday: Increasing Clouds. Rain moves in late. Highs: 50s Overnight Lows: 50s

Good News: Weekend stays on the warmer side.

Bad News: Colder weather returns next week. Not as cold as this past week though.

Another Cold Couple Days. Weekend and Monday Will Feel Balmy In Comparison.

Cold conditions will remain the next couple days before temperatures recover to near or above normal values during the weekend and Monday. A chance of lake-effect snow will continue in NW PA today and tomorrow especially near Erie. A chance of freezing rain may occur on Saturday morning in western PA before conditions warm up and rain moves in. Highs will rise into the mid to upper 20s the next couple days in western PA before 30s and 40s move in on Saturday. Lows in the teens the next couple nights will rise into the upper 30s and 40s Saturday night. In the DC Region expect conditions to stay dry the next 3 days. Highs in the 40s today will drop into the mid to upper 30s tomorrow before 40s return on Saturday. Lows in the 20s the next couple nights will rise into the 30s by Saturday night. Hope you all have a great day. We’re almost to the weekend! Take care!
Current (~7-7:30am) Temperatures:
  • Erie, PA: 24; Wind Chill: 9
  • Franklin, PA: 21; Wind Chill: 9
  • New Castle, PA: 22; Wind Chill: 11
  • Butler, PA: 25; Wind Chill: 14
  • Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC): 27; Wind Chill: 18
  • Uniontown, PA: 28; Wind Chill: 21
  • State College, PA: 30; Wind Chill: 17
  • Frederick, MD: 32; Wind Chill: 32
  • BWI Airport, MD: 32; Wind Chill: 27
  • DC (KDCA): 36; Wind Chill: 29

Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat: Chilly. Light snow showers, mainly in NW PA, through Friday.

  • Today: Chance of snow, mainly NW PA. Mostly cloudy, otherwise. Windy.  Highs: Low to Mid 20s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 10s
  • Friday: Chance of snow in NW PA. Mostly cloudy, otherwise. Breezy. Highs: Mid 20s Overnight Lows: 10s
  • Saturday: Slight chance of freezing rain early in NW PA. Then a chance of rain. Breezy. Highs: Upper 30s/40s Overnight Lows: Mid 30s to Low 40s

DC Region:

Main threat: Chilly. Windy.

  • Today: Partly cloudy. Windy. Highs: Mid 40s Overnight Lows: Mid to Upper 20s
  • Friday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs: Mid to Upper 30s Overnight Lows: Mid 20s
  • Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs: Mid 40s Overnight Lows: Mid to Upper 30s

Good News: Warmer weekend/start to next week.

Bad News: Colder weather returns next week, but not as cold as we have been saying.

Very Cold Morning. No Coffee Needed, Just A Walk Outside In Shorts For 2 Seconds.

Looks like another very cold morning across the region, this time spreading into the DC Region as well. Lows in the single digits and teens in western PA with wind chills below 0 in some places. A chance of snow will move into western PA today before the chance lingers in NW through Friday. Light accumulations are possible. Looks like southwesterly flow won out over the lakes, keeping Erie away from any kind of substantial snowfall. Instead, places near Buffalo got over 5 feet of snow within 3 days with snow still falling. Another couple feet could fall in some locations there. The DC Region will stay dry but stay on the colder side of the spectrum the next 3 days. Highs in western PA will sit in the 20s and low 30s today before dipping into solely the 20s through Friday. Lows in the teens the next couple nights could drop back into the single digits Friday night into Saturday morning. The DC Region will see highs in the 30s today before 40s return on Thursday and Friday. Lows in the mid 20s to low 30s should hold steady through Friday night. Hunker down if you can, bundle up if you can’t. Stay warm folks! 
Current (~6-6:30am) Temperatures:
Overall: COLD
  • Erie, PA: 14; Wind Chill: -4
  • Franklin, PA: 9; Wind Chill: -4
  • New Castle, PA: 10; Wind Chill: -1
  • Butler, PA: 12; Wind Chill: 4
  • Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC): 13; Wind Chill: 3
  • Uniontown, PA: 13; Wind Chill: 4
  • State College, PA: 12; Wind Chill: -1
  • Frederick, MD: 23; Wind Chill: 17
  • BWI Airport, MD: 20; Wind Chill: 11
  • DC (KDCA): 23; Wind Chill: 16

Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat: Wind chills. Light snow showers, mainly in NW PA, through Friday.

  • Today: Chance of snow, mainly later. Mostly cloudy otherwise. Windy. Highs: Mid to Upper 20s Overnight Lows: Upper 10s/Low 20s
  • Thursday: Chance of snow, mainly NW PA. Mostly cloudy, otherwise. Windy.  Highs: Low to Mid 20s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 10s
  • Friday: Chance of snow in NW PA. Mostly cloudy, otherwise. Breezy. Wind chills below 0 possible.  Highs: Low to Mid 20s Overnight Lows: Single digits/Low 10s

DC Region:

Main threat: Chilly. Windy.

  • Today: Mostly sunny. Highs: Mid 30s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 30s
  • Thursday: Partly cloudy. Windy. Highs: Mid 40s Overnight Lows: Mid to Upper 20s
  • Friday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs: Mid to Upper 30s Overnight Lows: Mid 20s

Good News: Brief warm up into the weekend and the start of next week.

Bad News: Chilly the next few days. Cold weather returns next week, but not as cold.

Windy and Cold. Wind Chills Below 0 in Western PA. Frigid For Winter, Let Alone November.

A very cold morning across the region as wind chills in western PA have dropped below 0 and should continue through tomorrow.  Windy conditions will persist through Thursday in western PA as a chance of light snow persists over the next 3 days. Highs in the teens today will rise into the 20s tomorrow and Thursday. Lows in the single digits and teens tonight will bump up into the teens and 20s tomorrow night before Thursday night brings lows back down solely into the teens. The DC Region will see partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies over the next 3 days as afternoon highs peak in the low to mid 30s today. Mid 30s will continue on Wednesday before mid to upper 40s shuffle in on Thursday. Lows in the low to mid 20s tonight will rise into the upper 20s to low 30s on Wednesday night before mid 20s to low 30s settle in on Thursday night. Stay warm for a few more days because more bearable temperatures move in during the weekend and early next week. Take care folks!  
Current (~6-6:30am) Temperatures:
  • Erie, PA: 15; Wind Chill: -5
  • Franklin, PA: 10; Wind Chill: -7
  • New Castle, PA: 12; Wind Chill: -3
  • Butler, PA: 14; Wind Chill: -4
  • Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC): 14; Wind Chill: -3
  • Uniontown, PA: 12; Wind Chill: -1
  • State College, PA: 16; Wind Chill: 1
  • Frederick, MD: 28; Wind Chill: 18
  • BWI Airport, MD: 24; Wind Chill: 12
  • DC (KDCA): 28; Wind Chill: 17

Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat: Black ice. Wind chills. Light snow showers Wednesday night/early Thursday.

  • Today: Chance of snow in far NW PA. Mostly cloudy. Windy.  Highs: Mid to Upper 10s Overnight Lows: Single digits/Low 10s (Wind Chills Below 0)
  • Wednesday: Chance of snow, mainly later. Mostly cloudy otherwise. Windy. Highs: Mid to Upper 20s Overnight Lows: Upper 10s/Low 20s
  • Thursday: Chance of snow, mainly NW PA. Mostly cloudy, otherwise. Windy.  Highs: Low to Mid 20s Overnight Lows: 10s

DC Region:

Main threat: Chilly. Windy.

  • Today: Mostly sunny. Afternoon Highs: 30s Overnight Lows: Low to Mid 20s
  • Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs: Mid 30s Overnight Lows: Upper 20s/Low 30s
  • Thursday: Partly cloudy.  Highs: Mid to Upper 40s Overnight Lows: Mid to Upper 20s

Good News: Temperatures start to warm up during the late week.

Bad News: Frigid the next few days. Warmer temperatures should be relatively brief.