Still Lots Of Uncertainty With Winter Storm Early Next Week.

I should have waited until today to post my first look forecast total snowfall map, but I didn’t and now I kind of regret it. Models definitely not in consensus and some very different. Ya live and learn. Anyways, after the very cold morning this morning temperatures will bump up slightly into the weekend. A chance of rain and snow will move into PA tomorrow before changing over to snow. Sunday into Monday will be the main threat of wintry weather for both PA and the DC Region. Lots of uncertainty and risk with the forecast. Should get a chance to tweak my map tonight.
Current (~7am) Temperatures:
  • Everywhere: Brrrrr
  • Erie, PA:  -5; Wind Chill: -5
  • Franklin, PA: -8; Wind Chill: -8
  • New Castle, PA: -6; Wind Chill: -6
  • Butler, PA:  -6; Wind Chill: -6
  • Pittsburgh (KAGC): 4; Wind Chill: 4
  • Uniontown, PA: -1; Wind Chill: -1
  • State College, PA: 1; Wind Chill: 1
  • Frederick, MD: 10; Wind Chill: 1
  • BWI Airport, MD:  11; Wind Chill: 1
  • DC (KDCA):  15; Wind Chill: 3

Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat: Cold, Wind Chills Below 0, Wintry weather early next week

  • Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs: Teens/20s Overnight Lows: Teens/Low 20s
  • Saturday: Chance of rain and snow. Mainly snow up north. Highs: 30s/low 40s Overnight Lows: Teens/20s
  • Sunday:  Chance of snow. Highs: 20s/Low 30s  Overnight Lows: Single digits/teens.

DC Region: 

Main threat: Cold, Active pattern early next week.

  • Friday: Mostly sunny  Highs: Mid 20s/Low 30s Overnight Lows:Teens/Low 20s
  • Saturday:  Slight chance showers.  Highs: 40s Overnight Lows: 30s
  • Sunday: Mix of rain/sleet/snow, especially late. Highs: 40s/Low 50s Overnight Lows: 20s

Good News: A short break from the extreme cold this weekend. Cold returns next week. It’s the weekend!

Bad News: Winter storm could bring significant snowfall/sleet/rain early next week. Roads could be slick/not fun.

Winter Storm Jagoff (Sunday March 2 – Early Tuesday March 4) – First Look

Start: Sunday Afternoon (Exact Timing Still Needs Ironed Out)

End: Early Tuesday

Why did I overlap ranges? Time frame still 3 and a half days out essentially. Still a lot shifting that could go on.

Risks:

  • Bulk of precipitation has been moving further south with each model run. Potential further southerly trends. This could allow for less snow up north.
  • Any warming in the south could allow for more mixing and lower snow totals.

Main threats:

  • Heavy snow
  • Untreated roads
  • Low visibilities
  • Ice in southern PA.
  • Pittsburgh running low on salt so I’m not sure what they will do to prepare.
  • Ice Jam in Oil City concern with building more ice up.

If you don’t NEED to drive Sunday night and into Monday, DON’T. Otherwise, drive carefully and slowly. You’ve had a lot of experience this winter.

Potential Winter Storm Early Next Week Becoming More Than Just Potential

Cold now, winter storm later. Potential winter storm looks more likely to start out next week. I plan to put out a snowfall map either tonight or tomorrow. It looks like the worst of it starts Sunday night as it continues into Monday or early Tuesday. Considering the storm is 4 days out, the exact details with snowfall amounts/timing of this system/precipitation type need to be ironed out but this looks like it is going to happen. So get ready to saddle up again for more snow (Booooo).

Current (~7am) Temperatures:

  • Everywhere: Brrrrr
  • Erie, PA:  15; Wind Chill: -1
  • Franklin, PA: 12; Wind Chill: -2
  • New Castle, PA: 14; Wind Chill: -2
  • Butler, PA:  16; Wind Chill: 0
  • Pittsburgh (KAGC): 17; Wind Chill: 2
  • Uniontown, PA: 14; Wind Chill: 3
  • State College, PA: 18; Wind Chill: 5
  • Frederick, MD:  16; Wind Chill: 16
  • BWI Airport, MD:  20; Wind Chill: 20
  • DC (KDCA):  27; Wind Chill: 18

Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat: Cold, Wind Chills Below 0, Light Snow

  • Thursday:  Chance of snow, mainly in the north. Afternoon Highs: Teens/Low 20s  Overnight Lows: Positive/Negative single digits. Wind chills below 0.
  • Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs: Teens/20s Overnight Lows: Teens/Low 20s
  • Saturday: Light snow possible. Highs: 30s/low 40s Overnight Lows: Teens/20s

DC Region: 

Main threat: Cold

  • Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs: Upper 30s/Low 40s Overnight Lows: Teens
  • Friday: Mostly sunny  Highs: Mid 20s/Low 30s Overnight Lows: Upper Teens/20s
  • Saturday:  Slight chance of light snow/rain  Highs: Upper 30s/Low 40s Overnight Lows: 30s

Good News: Normal temperatures for this time of year continue to increase. About the only good news.

Bad News: Strong cold continues. Winter storm brings more wintry weather next week.

Confidence Continues to Grow With Storm System Next Week

The cold has arrived and will continue into the weekend as some light snow events push through the region. Could see a few inches with these systems, but nothing intense. In terms of next week. As I have been saying the past few days, an active pattern will move into the East next week. A significant snow event is possible for PA and the Northeast while areas further south could get a mix of wintry precip. Confidence with details remains low as a lot could occur between now and early next week when the system should track in.

Current (~7am) Temperatures:

  • Erie, PA:  9; Wind Chill: -4
  • Franklin, PA: 7; Wind Chill: -2
  • New Castle, PA: 10; Wind Chill: -5
  • Butler, PA:  10; Wind Chill: -2
  • Pittsburgh (KAGC): 16; Wind Chill: 4
  • Uniontown, PA: 17; Wind Chill: 11
  • State College, PA: 21; Wind Chill: 7
  • Frederick, MD:  28; Wind Chill: 20
  • BWI Airport, MD:  26; Wind Chill: 26
  • DC (KDCA):  30; Wind Chill: 25

Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat: Cold, Wind Chills Below 0, Light Snow

  • Today: Scattered light snow. Light accumulations possible. Highs: Teens Overnight Lows: Single digits. Wind chills below 0.
  • Thursday:  Chance of snow, mainly in the north. Afternoon Highs: Teens/Low 20s  Overnight Lows: Positive/negative single digits. Wind chills below 0.
  • Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs: Teens/20s Overnight Lows: Teens

DC Region: 

Main threat: Cold, Light Snow

  • Today: Light snow. Could see a couple of inches. Localized higher amounts possible.  Highs: 30s Overnight Lows: Teens/20s
  • Thursday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs: Upper 30s/Low 40s Overnight Lows: Teens
  • Friday: Mostly sunny  Highs: Upper 20s/Low 30s Overnight Lows: Upper Teens/20s

Good News: Light snow and relatively quiet conditions continue.

Bad News: Cold continues. Potential for another significant event next week is possible.

What’s Cooler Than Being Cool? Ice Cold.

The cold has started to settle in for the week as a chance of scattered light snow lingers around over the next 2-3 days. Light accumulations are expected with these systems. Other than that, it is going to be a bundle up kind of week. I think I may have even worn more layers than I needed today just because I am sick of the cold. Stay warm folks!

Current (~7am) Temperatures:

  • Erie, PA:  14; Wind Chill: 4
  • Franklin, PA: 14; Wind Chill: 4
  • New Castle, PA: 18; Wind Chill: 11
  • Butler, PA:  19; Wind Chill: 11
  • Pittsburgh (KAGC): 22; Wind Chill: 15
  • Uniontown, PA: 21; Wind Chill: 21
  • State College, PA: 21; Wind Chill: 11
  • Frederick, MD:  28; Wind Chill: 28
  • BWI Airport, MD:  29; Wind Chill: 29
  • DC (KDCA):  35; Wind Chill: 35

Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat: Cold, Wind Chills Below 0, Light Snow

  • Today: Chance of light snow. Highs: 20s Overnight Lows: Single digits/teens. Wind chills below 0 possible.
  • Wednesday: Chance of light snow. Highs: Teens Overnight Lows: Single digits/Low teens. Wind Chills below 0 possible.
  • Thursday:  Chance of snow, mainly in the north. Afternoon Highs: Teens/Low 20s  Overnight Lows: Upper single digits/Teens

DC Region: 

Main threat: Cold, Light Snow

  • Today: Chance of light snow  Highs: Upper 30s/Low 40s Overnight Lows: 20s
  • Wednesday: Chance of light snow.  Highs: 30s Overnight Lows: Teens/20s
  • Thursday: Partly cloudy skies. Highs: Upper 30s/Low 40s Overnight Lows: Teens

Good News: Other than some light snow, conditions stay relatively quiet this week.

Bad News: Cold continues for too long.

10 Ways You Know You Are A Meteorologist

  1. You have a degree in meteorology. Probably the easiest way that you know you’re a weatherperson is the fact that you have a piece of paper that signifies your hard work in 4 semesters of calculus/diff. eq,, physics, chemistry, various meteorology classes, and that health class you took but disregard in your daily diet. You always remember your educators and…
  2. …You start quoting your college professors and making corny jokes. In school, you would always wonder why your professors would make corny jokes about the weather. It isn’t until you get into the professional field where you realize that you end up using their quotes or making your own bad jokes. It acts as a way to remember a certain weather fact or just a way to keep you sane (even if others think your insane).
  3. Your interest in weather grew from a love of local news/The Weather Channel, a significant weather event that impacted your childhood, or just an overall love of weather/outdoors. Most meteorologists I have met tend to fall in love with weather at a young age. It is similar to the “I want to be a fireman/police officer” dream that many kids have. I’d say the same amount of people follow through with that “dream” too. 
  4. Your hours/eating habits are or have been unconventional. Some meteorologists are lucky and get the typical 9-5 job (or even 8-4 or 7-3 for that matter), but plenty of mets start out with hours that do not agree with the sleep schedule of the first 22 years of their lives. You’ve worked 10pm-7am, 3am-12pm, and 1pm-10pm. You’ve essentially lived the life of a vampire and a zombie before. With unconventional work hours comes unconventional eating, where your breakfast occurs at 2 in the morning or 7 at night. You have eaten pickles and pasta in the same meal. You have eaten pizza rolls and Zebra cakes at 4am. It doesn’t matter, just stuff your face with any kind of food and you’ll be satisfied. Along with weird schedules…
  5. …Your starting pay is/was similar to that of a teacher. Teachers do not get paid enough, and neither do meteorologists. You work odd hours year-round, some weekends, and usually have to work a few (if not most) holidays. A lot of folks tend to think you ride in limos to work and make 6 figures. Most meteorologists do not. This may be on your list because…
  6. …You have developed a list of pet peeves. Whether it is certain meteorologists or “weather enthusiasts” you have a beef with, misuse of terms like “derecho” or “polar vortex,” or the wonderful model total snowfall maps posted online (usually of the NAM), some things/people will just always bother you. This sometimes reveals that…
  7. …You have a love/hate relationship with other meteorologists. Mostly love, but there have been some ill feelings towards other mets. Whether it is because they do not agree with your forecast/thoughts on global warming or someone has posted total snowfall model runs 7 days out there will usually be some tension between mets. You have all been riding similar boats through meteorology and tend to usually forgive and forget.
  8. You forget that everyone does not care about the weather as much as you. Yes, most folks care about the weather to some extent, but, in terms of in depth details, most people could care less. All of the mets you follow on Twitter tend to make you forget that not everyone cares about the vort max at 500mb.
  9. You’ve seen the same reaction multiple times when people find out what you do for a living. “It’s the only job you can be wrong (insert %) of the time and still stay employed.” Others include: “Are you on TV” or “What are your thoughts on global warming.” My favorite is my grandfather’s, whose only reaction involves licking his finger and sticking it in the air. Love it.
  10. You enjoy helping people. Probably the most important reason why I went into the field of meteorology. The reason we have a job essentially. Not all of us help society directly, but what we do matters. Whether it is forecasting severe weather for a NASCAR race or forecasting cold temperatures to influence natural gas prices, we are helping someone. If anyone tells you that your job in meteorology is insignificant, shame on them.

Others could be added to this list I am sure, but these are the top 10 reasons in my book.

Cold Skies With Cold Likely. A Chance Of Cold Will Continue Throughout The Cold Week.

If you don’t catch the drift from my title, it is going to be cold this week. How cold you ask? Those warm temperatures you saw this weekend will be 20-30 degrees colder by this weekend. DC could see temperatures 35+ degrees colder by this upcoming weekend. Wind chills below zero will be possible in PA. Folks back home in Oil City, PA will postpone the flooding threat until the next big thaw. More snow could allow for the ice on Oil Creek to build higher, potentially damaging the bridges and buildings when the next thaw comes around. Some models are hinting at potential for unsettled weather next week that could bring a significant storm to the region, but the time frame is too far out to say for certain what will occur. This would not help with the ice build up back home.

Current (~7am) Temperatures:

  • Erie, PA:  22; Wind Chill: 9
  • Franklin, PA: 19; Wind Chill: 8
  • New Castle, PA: 19; Wind Chill: 9
  • Butler, PA:  21; Wind Chill: 12
  • Pittsburgh (KAGC): 23; Wind Chill: 11
  • Uniontown, PA: 20; Wind Chill: 20
  • State College, PA: 25; Wind Chill: 14
  • Frederick, MD:  34; Wind Chill: 24
  • BWI Airport, MD:  35; Wind Chill: 28
  • DC (KDCA):  39; Wind Chill: 31

Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat: Cold, Wind Chills Below 0, Light Snow

  • Today:  Temperatures decline/hold steady throughout the day. Chance of light snow in the north. Breezy. Afternoon Highs: 20s  Overnight Lows: Upper single digits/Teens
  • Tuesday: Chance of light snow. Highs: 20s Overnight Lows: Single digits/teens
  • Wednesday: Best chance of widespread snow. Light accumulations possible. Highs: Teens Overnight Lows: Single digits/low teens

DC Region: 

Main threat: Cold, Light Snow/Rain

  • Today: Mostly sunny skies. Windy. Highs: 40s Overnight Lows: 20s/Low 30s
  • Tuesday: Chance of light snow/drizzle  Highs: 30s/low 40s Overnight Lows: 20s
  • Wednesday: Chance of light snow.  Highs: 30s Overnight Lows: Teens/20s

Good News: Normal temperatures continue to increase. That’s about the only good news

Bad News: Cold continues for next week or two.

Stay warm and safe folks!

Weekend Weather: Warmth Lingers. Wet in PA. Dry After Today in DC.

Rain has already crossed into PA as some steady rain showers push eastward toward the East Coast. Some rumbles of thunder could be heard, especially later in the morning for DC. Conditions will dry out in DC for the weekend, but PA will continue to see a chance of rain and snow (slop) through Sunday. Next week will get a lot colder. Keep your hats and gloves out because it is going to get frigid once again.

Current (~6:00am-6:30am) Temperatures:

  • Erie, PA:  37
  • Franklin, PA:  43
  • New Castle, PA: 48
  • Butler, PA:  52
  • Pittsburgh (KAGC): 54
  • Uniontown, PA: 55
  • State College, PA: 39
  • Frederick, MD:  36
  • BWI Airport, MD:  39
  • DC (KDCA):  43

Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat: Steady rains, ponding on roads Strong wind gusts this afternoon up to 50 mph.

  • Today: Rain, especially early. Chance of snow mixing in with the rain in the north later. Windy with gusts of 50 mph possible. Afternoon Highs: 30s/40s  Overnight Lows: Upper 20s/low 30s
  • Saturday: Chance of rain. Snow may mix in early on Saturday. Highs: 40s/Low 50s Overnight Lows: 20s/30s
  • Sunday: Chance of rain/snow.  Highs: 30s/40s Overnight Lows: Teens/20s

DC Region:

Main threat: Boomers possible. ponding on roads, gusty winds. Nothing too crazy.

  • Today: Threat of rain continues. Rumbles of thunder possible. Breezy.  Highs: Upper 50s/60s Overnight Lows: 30s
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny. Highs: Upper 50s/60s Overnight Lows: Upper 30s/Low 40s
  • Sunday: Partly sunny  Highs: 50s/Low 60s Overnight Lows: 30s

Good News: Warmth holding on. Mainly dry for DC. Enjoy it!

Bad News: Going to get cold. How cold? Highs next weekend will be 20-30 degrees colder than highs this weekend. Highs in the 30s for DC and teens/20s and western PA by late next week.

Another Threat of Boomshakalakas For the Mid-Atlantic

A threat of boomshakalakas (thunderstorms) will return to the Mid-Atlantic tonight into early tomorrow as a cold front pushes through. The main threat of severe weather should stay west of PA and south of DC, but don’t count out potential for scattered damaging straight-line winds. With the ground as soggy as it is and wind gusts of 50 mph possible, trees and power lines could be in trouble and tumble over.

Current (~7am) Temperatures:

  • Erie, PA:  31
  • Franklin, PA:  23
  • New Castle, PA: 22
  • Butler, PA:  25
  • Pittsburgh (KAGC): 29
  • Uniontown, PA: 31
  • State College, PA: 27
  • Frederick, MD:  27
  • BWI Airport, MD:  28
  • DC (KDCA):  38

Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat: Black ice early this morning. Spotty damaging straight-line winds possible overnight tonight into early Friday

  • Today: Chance of rain. Boomers possible overnight. Windy  Highs: 40s/50s Overnight Lows: 30s/40s
  • Friday: Rain likely, especially early. Thunderstorms possible early. Windy. Highs: Upper 30s/40s  Overnight Lows: Upper 20s/low 30s
  • Saturday: Chance of rain. Snow may mix in overnight into Sunday. Highs: 40s Overnight Lows: 20s

DC Region:

Main threat: Boomers possible tomorrow. Very slight severe threat. Should stay mainly south. Spotty damaging winds possible tomorrow.

  • Today: Risk of rain late. Boomers possible  Highs: 50s Overnight Lows: 40s
  • Friday: Threat of rain continues. Rumbles of thunder possible. Breezy.  Highs: Upper 50s/60s Overnight Lows: 30s
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny. Highs: Upper 50s/60s Overnight Lows: Upper 30s/Low 40s

Good News: Warmth lingers into the weekend.

Bad News: Temperatures next weekend could be 20-30 degrees colder than this weekend. In other words, don’t pack up your winter clothes.

Boomers In The Forecast…For Now

Boomers are currently moving eastward from West Virginia into the Southeast. Also some freezing rain this morning in PA as surface temperatures remain below freezing. Northern MD could also see some freezing rain. Today won’t be the only threat of boomers though as Thursday night into Friday will bring another chance to hear some rumbles of thunder. Warmth continues into the weekend before we change back to the cold pattern that everyone so dearly loves.

Current (~6am) Temperatures:

  • Erie, PA:  44
  • Franklin, PA:  37
  • New Castle, PA: 41
  • Butler, PA:  39
  • Pittsburgh (KAGC): 41
  • Uniontown, PA: 38
  • State College, PA: 19
  • Frederick, MD:  27
  • BWI Airport, MD:  28
  • DC (KDCA):  36

Forecast:

Western PA:

Main threat: Freezing rain early this morning (especially in the mountains), boomers possible tomorrow evening/night, wet weather continues into Friday

  • Today: Early freezing rain changing over to rain. Highs: 40s Overnight Lows: 20s
  • Thursday: Chance of rain later in the day. Boomers possible.  Highs: 40s/50s Overnight Lows: 30s/40s
  • Friday: Rain likely, especially early. Highs: Upper 30s/40s  Overnight Lows: 20s/low 30s

DC Region:

Main threat: Rain, Boomers possible late tomorrow into Friday.

  • Today:  Chance of rain. Boomers should weaken before getting to DC. Highs:  50s Overnight Lows: 30s
  • Thursday: Risk of rain late. Boomers possible  Highs: 50s Overnight Lows: 40s
  • Friday: Threat of rain continues. Rumbles of thunder possible.  Highs: 50s Overnight Lows: 30s

Good News: Warmth persists through end of the week.

Bad News: Cold returns next week. Doesn’t look to go anywhere 2 weeks out.