Lake-Effect Snow

Could see the steadiest lake-effect snow in western PA between 4PM tonight into 5AM tomorrow. This hi-res model is by no means gospel, but it gives a good idea of what to expect. Still thinking 2-5″ by tomorrow morning with maybe another inch during the day on Thanksgiving. Lake-effect is difficult to predict exactly where the bands will set up, as you in Oil City just found out recently.

Current Radar and Storm Snow Totals

Current radar picture and storm snow totals. 12″ near cherry tree and 10″ in Franklin makes me skeptical, especially after freezing rain moved in last night. Might be a combination of this and the crazy lake-effect event. Another 2-5″ by tomorrow morning from lake-effect. Should start later in the day today.

 

 

Frost Advisories: “Oil City Schools Are Closed”

School is closed back home as snow and freezing rain coated the region. Good holiday start to you. The snow is not done yet as lake-effect starts to push in today. You could get another 2-5″ by tomorrow morning as winds blow off the lakes. Snow early in the day in Pittsburgh before snow showers lighten up. Highs will be colder than right now this afternoon in the 20s. Gusty winds will make for a bad travel day if the roads are not plowed well. Highs in the 20s/30s will continue through Friday. Lows in the teens/20s overnight will occur. In DC, looking at rain early with some crap moving in later. 30s are expected for afternoon highs into Friday. Lows in the 20s will occur. Anyways, be safe and stay warm. No Frost Advisories tomorrow, as I want to sleep in before working Thanksgiving afternoon. Take care and have a great holiday! Enjoy your friends/family, especially if they traveled through the mess to see you.

What to WATCH OUT for if you’re TRAVELING on WEDNESDAY to western PA:

-Free standing water from wet snow that may refreeze and turn to black ice with colder temperatures. Central PA could be worst of this and in mountains.
-Lingering snow, especially in higher elevations and in western PA. Should become less steady by late morning into the afternoon.
-Gusty winds. Especially in the mountains.

If I told you to leave tomorrow instead of today, I hope you have a quicker trip than a lot of folks I’ve talked to. Safe travels to you all! Goodnight and Godspeed!

Rain/Snow Line

Rain snow line just on the southern edge of Venango County, will it creep further north? I think it’ll reach to Oil City before the front to the west pushes eastward and cools things down again.

Safe travels to yinz who are traveling today/tomorrow

Parts of Allegheny County in PA already saw an inch or 2 of snow already overnight. Instead of going into a 3 day forecast I will go through different driving scenarios heading to western PA starting this afternoon:

From the south: Should be mostly rain (with some sleet possible) for your drive up I-95/I-270 today, although sleet is possible early on. I-70 you may start to see a change from rain to sleet/freezing rain/snow as you approach Breezewood. This scenario should continue along the turnpike until you reach the Pittsburgh area where sleet/snow will mostly occur, although rain may mix in later tonight. Mostly snow up I-79 towards Oil City.

From the east (turnpike): Starting out as mostly rain before you reach near Harrisburg area where sleet/freezing rain may start to mix in. This scenario should continue along the turnpike, until you reach the Pittsburgh area where sleet/snow will mostly occur, although rain may mix in later tonight. Mostly snow up I-79 towards Oil City.

From the east (I-80): Starting out as mainly rain in NYC and New Jersey. Should start changing over to sleet/freezing rain/snow in the Poconos and then change to mostly snow as you get west of Bellefonte.

From Ohio: Snow mainly along I-80. Turnpike could turn to sleet/freezing rain/ across southern Ohio.

Winter Storm Pilgrim (November 26-28)

Safe travels to yinz who are traveling today/tomorrow.

Parts of Allegheny County in PA already saw an inch or 2 of snow already overnight. Instead of going into a 3 day forecast I will go through different driving scenarios for those heading to western PA starting this afternoon:

From the south: Should be mostly rain (with some sleet possible) for your drive up I-95/I-270 today, although sleet is possible early on. I-70 you may start to see a change from rain to sleet/freezing rain/snow as you approach Breezewood. This scenario should continue along the turnpike until you reach the Pittsburgh area where sleet/snow will mostly occur, although rain may mix in later tonight. Mostly snow up I-79 towards Oil City.

From the east (PA Turnpike): Starting out as mostly rain before you reach near Harrisburg area where sleet/freezing rain may start to mix in. This scenario should continue along the turnpike, until you reach the Pittsburgh area where sleet/snow will mostly occur, although rain may mix in later tonight. Mostly snow up I-79 towards Oil City.

From the east (I-80): Starting out as mainly rain in NYC and New Jersey. Should start changing over to sleet/freezing rain/snow in the Poconos and then change to mostly snow as you get west of Bellefonte.

From Ohio: Snow mainly along I-80. Turnpike could turn to sleet/freezing rain/ across southern Ohio.

 

Snow totals from storm by Thursday morning (there will be ice mixed in as well).

Deceiving Radar

Radar is a bit deceiving. Precipitation is moving north-northeast essentially, not straight east to west. Nor’easter, get it?! This event is far from over. The way I see it, we’ve only just begun…

Ask me questions about the pre-Pilgrim storm and I’ll answer them by this afternoon. I’ll be making a snow map later. Hoping my forecast is a little better this time.

Well we have one day of dry conditions before we’re back at it for snow in western PA. This time it’ll be more widespread. Expecting somewhere in the ball park of 4-8″ for Oil City by the time this thing is done. Models are in pretty good consensus, but with storms like these there is a lot that models may over/under do. Pittsburgh I think will be a little sloppier starting out before the cold air arrives to drop temperatures for all snow. Highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s across western PA today before highs hang in the 30s into Wednesday. Lows in the 20s generally. As for DC, looks like the event will be mostly rain (heavy at times) with some sleet and freezing rain potential as well. Maybe some snow near the end of the event. Highs in the 30s today give way to 40s through Wednesday. Lows in the 30s the next couple of days. If you have any questions I’d be happy to help out. Al Roker might not have all of your answers. Take care and happy short week!